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The Immortality Paradox – Why is immortality impossible? – From a statistic point of view!

Currently, science is working on various fronts to make people’s lives more comfortable, pain-free and also longer.

Different scientific streams are working on the question why we are aging and what could be done to realize the dream of man, Immortality. To live forever.

But is it possible at all to live forever?

Let us suppose that medicine and science have reached the goal and defeated all diseases and deciphered the secret of aging. Let us assume that in 2100 all biological factors that could lead to death would be eliminated.

Would then eternal life be possible? No! But why not?

This is in the nature of eternal life itself. Eternal life means nothing more than that a human can live not only 30,000 days, but has 300,000 or 3 million or 30 million or an infinite number of days at her/his disposal.

This results in a fundamental problem for the „eternal“ human being. Small probabilities!

Accidents that we experience today as rather uninteresting, since they have very low probabilities, in a scenario of eternal life become a problem over the long term.

Let us take the subject of an aircraft crash. Let us assume that a human must fly 1 million times to experience a plane crash (these are purely fictitious numbers, no real values!).

Thus, if a person lives 30,000 days and spends 1% of the time on the plane, a person flies in an 80-year-long life in total 300 days. Thus, the probability that a person dies in this scenario in a plane crash lies at 300 / 3,000,000. So at about 0.01%.

In other words. How long would it take for this case that the probability is 100% and not 0.01%? Exactly at 10,000 lives. That If a person lives 10,000 lives (or 800,000 years), then the probability of dying in a plane crash would be 100% (fictitious example to illustrate the problem).

Aircraft crashes are not the only danger with low probabilities. Car accidents, bus accidents, slipping in the bathtub, and many other accidents do increase the likelihood of dying from age or illness.

Let us assume again that it takes about 100,000 days for a person to die in any accident. Then it would only take 2.740 years for a man to die with a probability of 100%.

This leads to the immortality paradox. The further we extend the life time, the higher the probability of dying.

That our life span is thus determined not only by diseases and aging, but also by the probability of dying in an accident. So if you want to extend the life span, it is also essential to reduce the likelihood of accidents or to reduce them to 0% for an eternal life.

However, since it is impossible to reduce the probability of occurrence of accidents to 0% (a small value such as 0.0000000000001% can always be left), an infinite life cannot be achieved.

Then for mankind remains nothing left but to make the best of the limited time which we have and will have.


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